Work in Progress |
The Experience Formation Mechanism (with Christian Conrad and Alexander Glas), October 2026. AWI Discussion Paper No. 775. | |
The Transmission of Supply Shocks in Different Inflation Regimes (with Sarah Arndt), September 2026. Update of CESifo Working Paper No. 10839 and Banque de France Working Paper No. 938. | |
Summary available on Vox.EU | |
Implications of Inflation Forecast Targeting for Fiscal Policy (with Sophia Oberbrinkmann), September 2026. CESifo Working Paper No. 1299. | |
Dancing in the Dark (with Maximilian Boeck, Michael Kleemann, and Gernot Müller), March 2026. Update of CESifo Working Paper No. 12252. | |
Inflation Forecast Targeting Revisited (with Christian Conrad and Gernot Müller), July 2025. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 20467. | |
Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro (with Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller, Manuel Menkhoff, and Knut Niemann), October 2025. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 17768, Working Papers of the PP 1859, No. 43. Revise and Resubmit AEJ: Macroeconomics | |
Summary available on Vox.EU | |
The limits of the ECB’s inflation projections (with Christian Conrad, in German. A DeepL translation is in the News section of the English page of the Chair), May 2024. AWI Discussion Paper No. 747. | |
Summary available in English on SUERF | |
Publications (Journals and Handbooks) |
Macroeconomic Expectations: Formation, measurement, and consequences (Editorial, with Stefan Trautmann and Dmitri Vinogradov), Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, forthcoming | |
On FIRE, news, and expectations (with Benjamin Born and Gernot Müller), CEPR DP18259 and The Routledge Handbook of Economic Expectations in Historical Perspective (2025), Chapter 10, Routledge, Eds.: Laetitia Lenel, Alexander Nützenadel, Jochen Streb, and Ingo Köhler. | |
Cross-country Unemployment Insurance, Transfers, and Trade-offs in International Risk Sharing (with David Vespermann). Journal of Monetary Economics 147S (2024), 103622. | |
Summary available in English on SUERF and in German on Ökonomenstimme | |
Expectation dispersion, uncertainty, and the reaction to news (with Benjamin Born and Jonas Dovern). European Economic Review 154 (2023), 104440. | |
Firm Expectations and Economic Activity (with Franziska Hünnekes and Gernot Müller). Journal of the European Economic Association 20 (2022), 2396-2439. | |
Firm expectations about production and prices: Facts, determinants, and effects (with Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller, and Knut Niemann). Handbook of Economic Expectations (2022, Chapter 12), Elsevier, Eds.: Ruediger Bachmann, Giorgio Topa, and Wilbert van der Klaauw. | |
The Role of Information and Experience for Households' Inflation Expectations (with Christian Conrad and Alexander Glas). European Economic Review 143 (2022), 104015. | |
Summary available in English on SUERF and in German on Ökonomenstimme | |
Growth Expectations, undue Optimism, and short-run Fluctuations (with Michael Kleemann and Gernot Müller). The Review of Economics and Statistics 103 (2021), 905-921. | |
Market Depth, Leverage, and Speculative Bubbles (with Hendrik Hakenes). Journal of the European Economic Association 19 (2021), 2577-2621. | |
Heterogeneous Consumers, Segmented Asset Markets, and the Effects of Monetary Policy. The Economic Journal 130 (2020), 1031-1056 | |
Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms (with Franziska Hünnekes and Gernot Müller). Journal of Monetary Economics 108 (2019), 45-63. | |
Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession (with Alexandra Born). The Economic Journal 129 (2019), 2691-2721. | |
Summary on RES media briefing. Featured on Christian Zimmermann's NEP-DGE Blog. | |
International Financial Market Integration, Asset Compositions, and the Falling Exchange Rate Pass-Through (with Almira Enders and Mathias Hoffmann). Journal of International Economics 110 (2018), 151-175. | |
Second-round effects after oil price shocks: Evidence for the euro area and Germany (with Almira Enders). Economics Letters 159C (2017), 208-213. | |
Has the Euro changed the Business Cycle? (with Philip Jung and Gernot Müller). European Economic Review 59 (2013), 189-211.
Winner of the Klaus-Liebscher Award 2010 of the Austrian Central Bank | |
How do Fiscal and Technology Shocks affect Real Exchange Rates? New Evidence for the United States (with Gernot Müller and Almuth Scholl). Journal of International Economics 83 (2011), 53-69. | |
Global Banking and International Business Cycles (with Robert Kollmann and Gernot Müller). European Economic Review 55 (2011), 407-426.
3rd most cited paper in the EER in the period following 2011 | |
On the International Transmission of Technology Shocks (with Gernot Müller). Journal of International Economics 78 (2009), 45-59. | |
Publications (Popular Press) |
Grenzen der Inflationsprognosen der EZB (with Christian Conrad). Heidelberger Jahrbücher Online 9 (2024) | |
Makrodaten: Die amtliche Statistik stärken (with Rüdiger Bachmann, Almut Balleer, Niklas Garnadt and Heiko Stüber). Wirtschaftsdienst 103 (2023), 741-745. | |
Die Prognosen der Europäischen Zentralbank (with Christian Conrad). Ruperto Carola (2023), 22, 24-31. | |
Der Staat freut sich als Schuldner. Interview in econo (2022), 3, 106-108. | |
Die EZB setzt ihre Glaubwürdigkeit aufs Spiel (with Christian Conrad and Gernot Müller). Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (2021), 15. December. | |
