ResearchSelected Publications

Below you will find a number of selected publications by researchers at the AWI. Complete publication lists can be found on the page of the respective person.


  • Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters (C. Conrad and K. Lahiri). The Routledge Handbook of Economic Expectations in Historical Perspective, forthcoming.
  • The Rationality Bias (T. Hagenhoff, J. Lustenhouwer and M. Tsionas). Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming.
  • On FIRE, news, and expectations (Z. Enders, B. Born and G. Müller). The Routledge Handbook of Economic Expectations in Historical Perspective, forthcoming. 
  • Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal. (S. Maurer, F. Rauch). Oxford Economic Papers, Volume 75, Issue 1, January 2023, Pages 142–162,
  • Within-city roads and urban growth. (Brandily, P., & F. Rauch). Journal of Regional Science, 1–29
  • How to Design the Ask: Funding Units vs. Giving Money. (Epperson, R., J. Diederich, T. Goeschl). Management Science, forthcoming.
  • Reputation vs Selection Effects in Markets with Informational Asymmetries (T. Alysandratos,  S. Georganas and M. Sutter). The Review of Economics and Statistics, forthcoming.
  • Expectation Formation under Uninformative Signals. (P. Kieren, and Weber, M.) Management Science, forthcoming.
  • Make hay while the sun shines: an empirical study of maximum price, regret and trading decisions. (S. Ebert,  Brettschneider J. and Henderson V.). Journal of the European Economic Association
  • Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs (S. Ebert,  Bordalo, P.; Coffman, K.; Gennaioli, N.; and Shleifer, A.) Review of Economic Studies, forthcoming.


  • The Effects of Fiscal Policy when Planning Horizons are Finite (J. Lustenhouwer and K. Mavromatis). Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, forthcoming.
  • Do women shy away from risky skill games?. (M. Lambrecht and J. Oechssler). Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 211, July 2023, 241-250.
  • Rice Farming and the Origins of Cooperative Behavior (T. Alysandratos, X. Zhou and M. Naef). Economic Journal  133, 2504–2532.
  • A Test of (Weak) Certainty Independence. (C. König-Kersting, C. Kops and S.T. Trautmann). Journal of Economic Theory 209, 105623.
  • Expectation Diversion, Uncertainty, and the Reaction to News (Z. Enders, B. Born and J. Dovern). European Economic Review 154 (2023), 104440.
  • Promise keeping and reliance damage (C. Vanberg and A. Sengupta). European Economic Review 152, 104344.
  • Financial market responses to a natural disaster: Evidence from credit networks and the Indian Ocean tsunami (K. Czura and S. Klonner). Journal of development economics 160.
  • Compliance and Truthfulness: Leveraging Peer Information for Competitive Audit Mechanisms (T. Goeschl, M. Oestreich & A. Soldà). Journal of the Association of Environmental & Resource Economists. 10(4), July 2023, 947-979.
  • Characterizing M-estimators. (Dimitriadis, T., Fissler, T., and Ziegel, J.). Biometrika, 111(1):339–346.
  • Honest calibration assessment for binary outcome predictions.(Dimitriadis, T., Dumbgen, L., Henzi, A., Puke, M., and Ziegel, J.). Biometrika, 110(3):663–680.
  • On testing equal conditional predictive ability under measure- ment error.(Hoga, Y. and Dimitriadis, T.). Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 41(2):364–376


  • Subsidizing Unit Donations: Matches, Rebates, and Discounts Compared (T. Goeschl, J. Diederich, C. Eckel, R. Epperson, and P. Grossman). Experimental Economics 25, 734-758.
  • Home Bias in Humanitarian Aid: The Role of Regional Favoritism in the Allocation of International Disaster Relief (A. Dreher, C. Bommer and M. Perez-Alvarez), Journal of Public Economics 208: 104604.
  • Poor and Rational: Decision-Making under Scarcity (D. Fehr, G. Fink and K. Jack), Journal of Political Economy, Volume 130, 2862-2897.
  • Your Place in the World: Relative Income and Global Inequality (D. Fehr, J. Mollerstrom and R. Perez-Truglia), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Volume 14, 232-268.
  • Social Class and (Un)ethical Behavior: Causal and Correlational Evidence (Gsottbauer, E., D. Müller, S. Müller, S. T. Trautmann, and G. Zudenkova). Economic Journal 132, 2392–2411.
  • European Fiscal Reform Preferences of Parliamentarians in France, Germany, and Italy (Blesse, S., P. Boyer, M. Bordignon, P. Carapella, F. Heinemann, E. Janeba und A. Raj) European Union Politics 23 (3), 529-540.
  • Dispelling the Shadow of Fiscal Dominance? Fiscal and Monetary Announcement Effects for Euro Area Sovereign Spreads in the Corona Pandemic (Havlik, A., F. Heinemann, S. Helbig und J. Nover). Journal of International Money and Finance 122, 102578.
  • The role of information and experience for households' inflation expectations (Conrad, C., Enders, Z., and A. Glas). European Economic Review, 143, 104015.
  • How Effective is Carbon Pricing? A Machine Learning Approach to Policy Evaluation (J. Abrell, M. Kosch, and S. Rausch). Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 112 (102589).
  • Air pollution and child development in India (Balietti, A., Datta, S. and Veljanoska, S.). Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 113, p.102624.
  • Firm expectations about production and prices: Facts, determinants, and effects (Z. Enders, B. Born, G.Müller and K.Niemann). Handbook of Economic Expectations (Chapter 12), Elsevier, Eds: R. Bachmann, G.Topa, and W. van der Klaauw.
  • Firm Expectations and Economic Activity (Z. Enders, F. Hünnekes and G. Müller). Journal of the European Economic Association 20, 2396-2439
  • Realized Quantiles (T. Dimitriadis and R. Halbleib). Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 40(3):1346–1361.


  • Aid, China, and Growth: Evidence from a New Global Development Finance Dataset (A. Dreher, A. Fuchs, B. C. Parks, A. Strange, M. J. Tierney), American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 13, 2: 135-174.
  • Stable Reliability Diagrams for Probabilistic Classifiers, (T. Dimitriadis, T. Gneiting and A. I. Jordan). Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
  • Realized Quantiles (T. Dimitriadis and R. Halbleib). Journal of Business & Economic Statistics.
  • Planning ahead for better neighborhoods: Long-run evidence from tanzania (Michaels, G., Nigmatulina, D., Rauch, F., Regan, T., Baruah, N., & Dahlstrand, A.). Journal of Political Economy, 129(7), 2112-2156.
  • Games in Context: Equilibrium under Ambiguity for Belief Functions (A. Dominiak and J. Eichberger) . Games and Economic Behavior 128, 125-159.
  • Decision-making with partial information (J. Eichberger and I. Pasichnichenko). Journal of Economic Theory 198, 105369.
  • Growth Expectations, undue Optimism, and short-run Fluctuations (Z. Enders, M. Kleemann and G. Müller). The Review of Economics and Statistics 103, 905-921.
  • Market Depth, Leverage, and Speculative Bubbles (Z. Enders and H. Hakenes). Journal of the European Economic Association 19, 2577-2621.
  • Let the team fix it?—Performance and mood of depressed workers and coworkers in different work contexts (Vollmann, M., Schwieren, C., Mattern, M., & Schnell, K.). PloS one, 16(10), e0256553.
  • Prudent Discounting: Experimental Evidence on Higher-Order Time Risk Preferences (S. Ebert). International Economic Review62(4), 1489–1511. 


  • Weighted Discounting – On Group Diversity, Time-inconsistency, and Consequences for Investment (Ebert, S., Wei, W. & X.Y. Zhou) . Journal of Economic Theory, 189, Article 105089.
  • Decision Making When Things Are Only a Matter of Time (Ebert, S.). Operations Research, 68(5), 1564–1575.
  • Copy Trading (J. Apesteguia, J. Oechssler, and S. Weidenholzer). Management Science Volume 66 (12), Pages 5485-6064.
  • Two are better than one: Volatility forecasting using multiplicative component GARCH-MIDAS models (Conrad, C. and O. Kleen). Journal of Applied Econometrics, 35, 19-45.
  • Heterogeneous Consumers, Segmented Asset Markets, and the Effects of Monetary Policy (Z. Enders). The Economic Journal 130, 1031-1056
  • Testing for an omitted multiplicative long-term component in GARCH models. (Conrad, C., and M. Schienle.) Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 38, 229-242.
  • Norms in the lab: Inexperienced versus experienced participants (Schmidt, R., C. Schwieren, and A.N. Sproten). Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 173, 239-255.


  • The Economics of Renewable Energy Support (J. Abrell, S. Rausch, and C. Streitberger). Journal of Public Economics, 176, 94-117.
  • Inflation targeting and liquidity traps under endogenous credibility (Hommes, C. and Lustenhouwer, J.). Journal of Monetary Economics, 107, 48-62.
  • Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms (Z. Enders, F. Hünnekes and G. Müller). Journal of Monetary Economics 108 , 45-63.
  • Cumulative Prospect Theory, Option Returns, and the Variance Premium (Baele, L., Driessen, J., Ebert, S., Londono, J.-M. & O. Spalt), Review of Financial Studies, 32(9), 3667–3723.
  • Global Banking, Trade, and the International Transmission of the Great Recession (Z. Enders and A. Born). The Economic Journal 129, 2691-2721.


  • Legislative bargaining with heterogeneous disagreement values: Theory and experiments (C. Vanberg, L. Miller and M. Montero), Games and Economic Behavior, 107 , 60-92.
  • Do Fiscal Rules Constrain Fiscal Policy? A Meta-Regression-Analysis (Heinemann, F., M.-D. Moessinger und M. Yeter). European Journal of Political Economy 51, 69-92.


  • The benefits of forced experimentation: striking evidence from the London underground network (Larcom, S., F. Rauch, and T. Willems). The Quarterly Journal of Economics 132.4: 2019-2055.


  • Asymptotics for parametric GARCH-in-mean models. (Conrad, C., and E. Mammen). Journal of Econometrics, 194, 319-329.


  • Until the Bitter End: On Prospect Theory in a Dynamic Context (Ebert, S. & P. Strack). American Economic Review, 105(4), 1618–1633. 


  • Higher Order Risk Attitudes, Demographics, and Financial Decisions (Noussair, C.N., S.T. Trautmann, and G. van de Kuilen). Review of Economic Studies 81, 325−355.


  • Impatience and Uncertainty: Experimental Decisions Predict Adolescents’ Field Behavior (Sutter, M., M. Kocher, D. Rützler, and S. T. Trautmann). American Economic Review 103, 510–531. 


  • Urbanization and structural transformation (Michaels, G., F. Rauch, and S. J. Redding). The Quarterly Journal of Economics 127.2: 535-586.


  • Why do people keep their promises? An experimental test of two explanations (C. Vanberg). Econometrica, 76 (2008), 1467-1480.


  • Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment (M. Drehmann, J. Oechssler, and A. Roider). American Economic Review 95(5).