Prof. Dr. Christian ConradEconometrics

September 2024

• New publication: Christian Conrad and Kajal Lahiri (2024). Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters. AWI Discussion Paper Series No. 754. 
• Christian Conrad visited the KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, for a research stay. He was working on a project using the KOF Consensus Forecast data to study the expectation formation of professional forecasters.
• Christian Conrad presented the paper “Beyond the Numbers Professional Forecasters’ Narratives about Inflation and Stock Market Performance " (joint with Julius T. Schoelkopf, Michael Weber, and Frank Brueckbauer) at the ZEW FMT Workshop in Mannheim on September 20, 2024. 
• Julius Schoelkopf presented the paper “Heterogeneous Expectation Formation. Evidence from International Forecasts" (joint with Christian Conrad and Zeno Enders) at the Financial Market Test Workshop at the ZEW in Mannheim on September 20, 2024. 
• Christian Conrad and Zeno Enders recently published a SUERF Policy Brief on “The limits of the ECB’s inflation projections,” arguing that the ECB's inflation projections are uninformative for forecast horizons of more than one year. Isabel Schnabel, member of the Executive Board of the ECB, mentioned a chart from this Policy Brief in a recent speech (slide 5) at the Bank of Estonia. She used it to conclude that “inflation projections from the forecasting community, including the ECB, have, on average, had little explanatory power for realized inflation over horizons beyond the very short term.” In his Central Banks newsletter, Chris Giles from the Financial Times used the same chart to discuss this issue further. 

  SUERF Policy Brief

  Speech by Isabel Schnabel (ECB)

  Chart used by Chris Giles (FT)

August 2024

• New publication: Glas, A., and J. Schoelkopf (2024). How Much Do Financial Analysts Disagree on the Future Path of the ECB’s Interest Rate? SUERF Policy Brief No 949. 

  Link

• New publication: Conrad, C., and Z. Enders (2024). The limits of the ECB's inflation projections. SUERF Policy Brief No 945.

  Link

July 2024

• On July 30, the 11th HKMetrics-Workshop took place at Heidelberg University. 

  Program

• Julius Schoelkopf presented the paper "Beyond the Numbers. Professional Forecasters’ Narratives about Inflation and Stock Market Performance” (joint work with Christian Conrad, Michael Weber, and Frank Brückbauer) at the 11th HKMetrics Workshop on July 30. 
• Julius Schoelkopf presented the paper “Long-term volatility shapes the stock market’s sensitivity to news" (joint with Christian Conrad and Nikoleta Tushteva) at the Monetary and Capital Markets Policy Forum at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on July 23, 2024. 
• Julius Schölkopf and Alexander Glas (ZEW Mannheim) published a ZEW policy brief on financial analysts' disagreement on the ECB’s future interest rate path. In the policy brief, they discuss the heterogeneity in expected interest rates using the June 2024 wave of the ZEW’s Financial Market Survey and find that the expected interest path depends on whether or not respondents believe that inflation will converge to the ECB’s target rate in the short-run. Christian Siedenbiedel discussed the policy brief in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung on July 9 (“Das große Zins-Szenario”). 

  Policy Brief

  FAZ Article

• Julius Schoelkopf presented the paper "Beyond the Numbers. Professional Forecasters’ Narratives about Inflation and Stock Market Performance” (joint work with Christian Conrad, Michael Weber, and Frank Brückbauer) at the  "6th Behavioral Macroeconomics Workshop on Heterogeneity and Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance“ on July 5, 2024. 

June 2024

• Christian Conrad presented the paper „Long-Term Volatility Shapes the Stock Market's Sensitivity to News“ (joint with Julius Schoelkopf and Nikoleta Tushteva) at the Finance@VU seminar at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, June 21, 2024.
• New Working Paper: Christian Conrad and Zeno Enders (2024). „The Limits of the ECB’s Inflation Forecasts.“ AWI Discussion Paper 747. 

  link

• Julius Schoelkopf presented the paper "Beyond the Numbers. Professional Forecasters’ Narratives about Inflation and Stock Market Performance” (joint with Christian Conrad, Michael Weber, and Frank Brückbauer) in the seminar of the research group "Pensions and Sustainable Financial Markets” at the Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) in Mannheim on June 5, 2024.