ZEW Policy Brief Trump vs. Harris: Consequences of US Presidential Election for German Economy

Julius Schölkopf, together with Lora Pavlova and Alexander Glas (both ZEW Mannheim), have published a SUERF and ZEW Policy Brief on the “Impact of the US Presidential Race on the German Economy: Insights from Professional Forecasters” in which they analyze the impact of the upcoming US presidential election on the German economy. According to data from the ZEW Financial Market Test, financial market experts see a Harris victory as more likely to benefit economic growth in Germany. By contrast, Trump is perceived as pursuing a more isolationist approach and focussing on protectionism. This could hamper Germany’s economic growth potential. Contrary to the economic growth forecasts, the inflation expectations for Germany hardly vary between the two candidates. While German financial market experts anticipate a weak inflationary pressure from the US, they do not expect inflation rates to differ significantly depending on the election outcome.